The conflict could end up becoming a protracted tribal war.
Other tanks are 70 kilometres to the south near Az Zuwaytinah.
They are being pursued by insurgents as they retreat. But the rebels have told Mr Melissen that they will not attack.

*“They are being very careful about pushing forward. They know now that they don’t have to attack the tanks. The Western jets will do that for them. They would normally attack the tanks immediately, but now they wait and look upwards, hoping for support from the sky.”*

Tanks in the open, as they were outside Benghazi, are an easy target for the coalition. That’s why Colonel Gaddafi will try as much as possible to take the fight to residential areas. Western planes will not dare to launch strikes there for fear of civilian casualties. That was why he attempted to get his troops inside Benghazi just before the no-fly zone was implemented.

**Establishment**
Retired Major General Berry Macco says a war fought in the cities could go on for months. If the rebels fail to organise clear leadership in the short term, the conflict is more likely to turn into a tribal war.

*“I hope the rebels adopt a command structure and that the Gaddafi army and establishment realise their cause is hopeless and desert en masse. Then it could be just a matter of one or two weeks. But if that doesn’t happen and it turns into a tribal war, with various clans fighting each other, then we could be in for several months.”*

**Wedge**
In the meantime, Col Gaddafi could use footage of victims of the air strikes to drive a wedge between the members of the coalition. The Arab League has already voiced protest at the Western air strikes, after previously backing the imposition of the no-fly zone.

Hans Jaap Melissen sees Sunday’s offer of a ceasefire by the Libyan regime as an attempt by Col Gaddafi to win time and divide the coalition. There was a similar ceasefire announced by Tripoli a few days ago, but Libyan government forces just pressed on with their advance on Benghazi.

**Psychological effect**
General Macco hopes that Gaddafi followers will give up under the psychological strain caused by the air strikes before the fighting can become a bloody and drawn-out ground war.

*“For the Gaddafi troops, it’s an awful situation. You ride round knowing that you could be knocked out at any time. That’s why I think the psychological effect on the troops’ morale is much bigger than the actual destruction that’s taking place.”*