The recent assembly of European leaders in London, orchestrated by UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron, was intended to showcase a unified front in addressing the ongoing crisis in Ukraine. However, beneath the veneer of solidarity and lofty declarations lies a disconcerting absence of a coherent and realistic strategy to safeguard Europe’s interests in an increasingly volatile global landscape.
By Ingo Piepers
The Mirage of the “Coalition of the Willing”
The summit’s highlight – a so-called “coalition of the willing” – was presented as a testament to Europe’s commitment to Ukraine’s defense. Yet, this coalition amounts to little more than a symbolic gesture, lacking the substantive framework necessary to effect meaningful change on the ground. The reliance on continued military aid, exemplified by the UK’s £1.6 billion in export finance for air defense missiles, fails to address the underlying strategic deficiencies that have plagued Europe’s response since the conflict’s inception.
Clinging to the Illusion of U.S. Support
European leaders persist in the misguided belief that robust backing from the United States is attainable and aligned with Europe’s objectives. This notion is a relic of a bygone era. The current U.S. administration, under President Trump, has pivoted towards a realpolitik approach that prioritizes American interests, even at the expense of traditional allies. The recent thaw in U.S.-Russia relations, underscores a strategic calculus aimed at countering China’s ascent by co-opting Russia, thereby diminishing Europe’s geopolitical significance.
The US is openly undermining NATO and Europe, but European leaders are blind to this: Yesterday, US Secretary of Defense Hegseth ordered a halt to cyber operations against Russia; this has major consequences for the security of Europe, obviously.
The Perils of European Naivety
The London summit epitomizes Europe’s enduring naivety. The proposed limited ceasefire – a month-long cessation of hostilities confined to air, sea, and energy infrastructure, with the rationale that there is insufficient capacity to monitor a full ceasefire – is both absurd and unworkable. Such half-measures reflect a profound disconnect from the realities on the ground and a lack of political will to confront the broader implications of the conflict. This absurd proposal hands Putin yet another victory. It appears that, in their panic, European leaders have moved beyond shame.
The Zelensky-Trump Confrontation: A Metaphor for Europe’s Plight
The recent confrontation between Ukrainian President Zelensky and President Trump, supported by Vice-President Vance, was not just about Ukraine: it was about Europe. For Trump and Vance, it was not only Zelensky in the proverbial ‘hot seat,’ but Europe itself. The exchange laid bare the reality that Europe, through its continued subservience, has allowed itself to be bullied into irrelevance.
Yet, thanks to Zelensky’s steadfastness, the White House spectacle resulted not in America First but America Second. If only European leaders had a fraction of Zelensky’s vision and courage, Europe’s position would be far stronger.
But instead of supporting Ukraine’s resilience, Europe – led by Starmer and Macron – forced Zelensky into announcing his willingness to sign the minerals agreement with the U.S. This is nothing short of disgraceful. It was obviously done under pressure, making it an outright infringement on Ukraine’s sovereignty. Europe should never tolerate, let alone facilitate, the carving up of one of its own, and other countries for that matter. That Starmer and Macron are actively participating in this betrayal, out of sheer opportunism and weakness, is an indictment of their failed leadership.
The Imperative for a Grand European Strategy
Europe stands at a crossroads, Starmer rightly notes; but he is now taking the wrong turn, lacking vision, strategy and an understanding of what is really at stake here.
Europe has to ask itself whether you still want that in the current situation, and in view of the US objectives and Trump’s erratic and unreliable behavior. The reliance on U.S. security guarantees is an increasingly untenable position. The continent must confront the harsh reality that it is, for all intents and purposes, alone in safeguarding its interests, and act accordingly. This necessitates the formulation of a grand strategy that acknowledges the ongoing global realignment and positions Europe as a sovereign geopolitical actor.
Such a strategy should encompass the development of autonomous defense capabilities, the forging of strategic alliances beyond the traditional transatlantic framework, and a steadfast commitment to upholding democratic values and human rights. Only through a clear-eyed recognition of the current geopolitical dynamics and a resolute determination to act in its own interest can Europe hope to navigate the challenges that lie ahead.
The time for complacency and half-measures has passed. Europe must seize this moment to assert its autonomy and redefine its role on the world stage. Failure to do so risks consigning the continent to irrelevance in an emerging international order that shows little regard for the ideals and aspirations that have long underpinned the European project.
Ingo Piepers, Founder @ Global4Cast | PhD, International Security, Consultancy
