With Trump’s tariffs set to begin on March 4, the Mexican president has announced that her country is ready to face the impact of tariffs
By Tallis Boerne Marcus
As the uncertainty of a Trump administration continues to weigh on Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum’s leadership has received historic support from the Mexican people. Sheinbaum has rocketed to an 85% approval rating according to a poll published on March 3 by El Financiero.
This polling comes just ahead of the United States’ imposition of tariffs set to begin on Tuesday, March 4.
The president’s approval rating is even higher than that of her extremely popular predecessor Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador, who peaked with 83% in February 2019, and finished with 70%.
Of those polled, 83% see Sheinbaum as honest, 82% see her as someone with leadership and 78% believe she has the capacity to give results for the country.
Sheinbaum spoke on the new figures in her daily press conference on March 3: “That speaks, beyond my person, of a lot of unity in the country in the face of what is happening…and that in the face of any situation we will emerge united in the process.”
“Mexico is strong, the economy of Mexico is strong.”
While Sheinbaum’s strong support of Mexico’s sovereignty and defiant demeanor towards Trump has caught the majority of the headlines, her presidency has also been characterized by constant travel to different parts of the country, revealing the executives’ prioritization of the connection and communication with communities.
Sheinbaum’s social media records her weekend visits to different parts of Mexico. The president has traveled to the states of Durango, Guanajuato, and Colima to oversee different public works projects in just the last 10 days.
Sheinbaum ensures a “Plan A, B, C, and D” for tariffs.
With tariffs from the United States reportedly set to begin tomorrow, Sheinbaum has called for “composure, serenity and patience”.
“We are going to wait to see what happens. We have to have composure, serenity and patience, and we have plan A, plan B, plan C, plan D.”
Sheinbaum acknowledged the unpredictability of the United States final decision, but reassured that there is a plan for any scenario.
“Anything is possible…there is composure and serenity in the sense that whatever decision is made, there is a plan and that there is a lot of unity in plan, that is very good.”
The markets appear to share Sheinbaum’s tranquility, with the New York Times reporting that Mexico’s financial markets remain calm ahead of the incoming tariffs and Forbes noting that the Mexican peso is actually appreciating against the US dollar ahead of the tariffs.
Another point to note, is that while the Trump administration has signaled the beginning of tariffs on Tuesday, it is still unclear exactly what the conditions of these tariffs will be.
It is being speculated that they could be less than the initial proposed 25%, with Trump’s commerce secretary Howard Lutnick stating that Trump is still considering “how exactly he wants to play it with Mexico and Canada”.
“He’s going to think about it. He’s going to put them into place on Tuesday. The Canadians and the Mexicans have been talking to him.”
Mexico’s efforts in thwarting Fentanyl production and distribution
Lutnick mentioned that he believes Mexico and Canada had not done enough to address concerns over “fentanyl deaths in America”.
Sheinbaum highlighted a graphic in her press conference to show that since she took office in October, US fentanyl seizures at the border have reduced 50%, suggesting Mexico is better at preventing its distribution.
She said: “There has been a reduction in fentanyl seizures since October, of 49.94, that is, they are seizing half of what they seized in October. That means we are doing something right.”
While the New York Times writes that Sheinbam’s predecessor AMLO had “limited anti-narcotics cooperation with the United States” and that recent seizures are “marking a break from past policies, when cartels managed to produce fentanyl with negligible interference from the authorities”, the real figures seem to suggest that Sheinbaum’s results are really the sustained efforts of AMLO’s administration, who significantly increased fentanyl seizures throughout his administration.
Mexico’s fentanyl seizures in between 2018 and March 2023 increased by 1049% compared to the total seizures by the previous administration of Enrique Peña Nieto in between 2014 and 2018.
Progress only continued since then, Mexico seized 2328 kilos of the drug in 2023, and that figure increased by 22% in 2024 to 2842 kilos.
Therefore, while the NYT appears to largely credit Mexico’s success in fentanyl seizures to “welcoming intelligence” from the CIA, including drone flights, the seizures rather appear to be a sign of continued progress since Morena came into power in 2018.
In 2022, 89% of arrested fentanyl traffickers were United States citizens and in 2023, 86.4% were United States citizens.
Trump and Sheinbaum’s relationship
While conservative Mexican commentators like Denise Dresser attempted to undermine Sheinbaum’s ability to manage relations with Trump, the US head of state has praised Sheinbaum and the results appear to be showing in the slowing of interventionist threats towards Mexico from the United States.
Trump said: “I was speaking to the president of Mexico, a very wonderful woman actually…”
Trump continued to mention that Sheinbaum gave him strategies on reducing drug consumption in his own country, which he thanked her for.
“She said ‘we advertise a lot…we spend a lot of money on advertising.’
“I said ‘unbelievable, that was such a great conversation, because we’re going to spend hundreds of millions of dollars advertising how bad drugs are, so that kids don’t use them.
“I thank her for that, I make so many calls and I never learn anything from anybody, and I spoke to this woman, and I said ‘exactly, what a great idea’, I saw some of their ads and they are really violent…she really gave me something, I was going to call her and tell her that she did, to the President of Mexico, thank you very much and we appreciate it”.
After the United States’ designation of drug cartels as terrorist organizations, there have naturally been many fears of military intervention.
However, Sheinbaum’s efforts appear to be smoothing relations, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio declaring “it’s their country” when asked if this designation suggests military force against cartels.
Rubio said: “…it gives us tools to go after them with law enforcement. But if they’re located in a third country, like operating out of Mexico, we can now share that information with our Mexican partners. It’s their country and they can action that item because it poses a threat to both of our countries”
Mexico has also been strategically using this designation, through a lawsuit against United States gun manufacturers for arming cartels, which is now being considered by the US Supreme Court.
A previous investigation from USA Today revealed that US gun shops and smugglers accounted for nearly 80,000 firearms illegally trafficked into Mexico.
Mexico estimates that between 200,000 and 750,000 weapons manufactured by United States gun companies are smuggled across the border each year.
The designation of these cartels as terrorist organizations mean that any proven links between them and US gun manufacturers will have extreme consequences for those involved.
Tallis Boerne Marcus is an Australian journalist currently based in Mexico City.
