“The final battle has already begun.”

The new white oil

There is no more disputed resource today than lithium. Not because it’s magical, but because it’s necessary. Without lithium, there are no electric cars, no batteries, no energy transition, no technological future. Behind the discourse of sustainability and going green lies something else: a desperate race to control the new white oil. A global fever where everyone wants it, but few have it. And the most brutal part is that those who have it often don’t control it.

Seven countries, 85% of the planet

Seven countries concentrate 85% of the world’s lithium reserves: Bolivia, Argentina, Chile, Australia, China, Canada, southern Africa (Zimbabwe, DRC, Namibia), and Mexico. But the paradoxes are fierce. Chile has it, but handed it over to private companies. Argentina possesses it, but fragments it among provinces. Bolivia safeguards it but underutilizes it. Africa suffers from it. Australia exports it raw. Canada invests in it but does not transform it. Mexico nationalized it but lacks the technology. And China, which has little lithium at home, controls the entire global market. The paradox is not geological. It is political.

Chile, the evaporated lithium

With almost 11% of global reserves, Chile exported over USD 8.6 billion in 2023 through SQM and Albemarle. But the State received just over USD 2.7 billion. Most of the business remains in private hands. There is no national battery plant, no domestic industry, no real state plan. The Atacama salt flat is the epicenter of an extractivist model disguised as modernity. Chilean lithium continues to be evaporated like saltpeter, sold like copper, and plundered like history.

Argentina, rich provinces, dry communities

Argentina has the most newly approved projects. It holds 21% of global reserves, and unlike Chile, provinces control the resource. But that control has been granted through concessions to foreign firms like Livent, Ganfeng, or Allkem. In 2023, the country exported around USD 700 million, a marginal figure given its potential. Communities demand water, information, and prior consultation. Lithium flows, but development doesn’t arrive.

Bolivia, sovereignty in the making

With 21% of global reserves, Bolivia is the sleeping giant of lithium. Its bet on a state company has been brave, but slow. Today, it seeks alliances with Russia, China, and Germany to industrialize its wealth. In 2023, it signed deals worth over USD 1 billion to install pilot plants for batteries and hydroxide. But it still doesn’t export in large volumes. It has the lithium but not the technology. It has sovereignty, but it lacks time. Will it be too late when it wakes up?

Australia, a supermarket without industry

With 13% of global reserves, Australia is the world’s largest producer, exporting over 330,000 tons of LCE per year and generating USD 18.6 billion in revenue. But almost all of that lithium is exported unprocessed. Over 80% goes to China. Greenbushes, Mt Marion, Wodgina, Mt Holland—these are world-class deposits. But the country has no battery industry, no national lithium company, and no sovereign policy. It is a mining supermarket disguised as a tech power.

China, the one that doesn’t have it but controls it

China has just 7% of global reserves. But that doesn’t matter. It has invested in more than 50 lithium projects worldwide. It controls part of SQM in Chile, dominates deposits in Argentina and Africa, and owns companies in Australia. Over 70% of the world’s lithium passes through Chinese plants before becoming a battery. And more than 80% of EV batteries are made in China. It doesn’t need to own lithium. It needs to control its processing. And it already does.

Africa, the fastest plundering in history

Africa holds 12% of global lithium reserves. Zimbabwe, the DRC, and Namibia are the major hotspots. Chinese companies and Canadian funds already operate mines like Arcadia, Bikita, and Manono. But the benefits don’t reach the people. Communities live without clean water, schools, or roads. Contracts are not public. The mines operate as colonial enclaves. The history of coltan, gold, and diamonds repeats itself. Only now it’s called lithium. And it’s exported faster than ever.

Canada, the shadow power

Canada doesn’t just have lithium. It has funds. Companies like Lithium Americas, Sigma Lithium, or Neo Lithium hold stakes in key operations in Argentina, the U.S., Africa, and Canada itself. The country holds about 3% of global reserves but controls much more through cross-investments. It has financial power, not technological. And it acts as a pivot between China and the U.S., negotiating access to raw materials and exporting unprocessed lithium. A cold, strategic player with no visible flag, but a strong checkbook.

Mexico, the uncomfortable nationalization

Mexico doesn’t have the largest reserves, but it has the will. With nearly 2% of the world’s lithium concentrated in Sonora, the country declared lithium a strategic resource and created LitioMX, a state company with full control. After nationalization, contracts were reviewed, sparking diplomatic tensions and investor pressure. But Mexico still resists. With delays, but with dignity.

How much lithium is left? How much time do we have?

Proven global reserves will last about 60 more years. But that’s not much time. Australia could exhaust its mines in 30 years. Chile and Argentina in 40. Africa in 15. Bolivia has lithium for 70 years but has yet to exploit even 1%. If lithium isn’t nationalized now, there may be nothing left to defend.

The broken mirror of lithium

The story of lithium is the story of the world. Those who have it don’t control it. Those who control it don’t have it. Those who process it don’t produce it. And those who consume it look away. There’s green rhetoric while salt flats dry up. And all this is happening now.

A failed model, a real urgency

Can the model be changed? Yes. When? Now. Lithium nationalization is not a utopia. It’s an urgency. Create public companies, refine at origin, demand technology, and guarantee added value. No more opaque contracts. No more giveaways. This must become a new model.

Lithium belongs to those who have it, not those who want it

This is not a call for war. It’s a cry of defense. Lithium doesn’t belong to Tesla or Tianqi. It belongs to the people who have it under their feet.

Because lithium is no longer just a mineral.

There’s no time for lukewarmness. Either it is nationalized, or it evaporates. Either it is defended, or it is sold. This is the battle of the 21st century. And lithium is the front line. Whoever wants to understand power should look here.