{"id":2680207,"date":"2026-02-28T12:30:58","date_gmt":"2026-02-28T12:30:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.pressenza.com\/2026\/02\/iran-lanza-ataques-contra-bases-de-estados-unidos-en-el-golfo-y-autoridades-ordenan-resguardo-de-la-poblacion\/"},"modified":"2026-03-01T21:12:58","modified_gmt":"2026-03-01T21:12:58","slug":"iran-lanza-ataques-contra-bases-de-estados-unidos-en-el-golfo-y-autoridades-ordenan-resguardo-de-la-poblacion","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.pressenza.com\/fr\/2026\/02\/iran-lanza-ataques-contra-bases-de-estados-unidos-en-el-golfo-y-autoridades-ordenan-resguardo-de-la-poblacion\/","title":{"rendered":"Moyen-Orient sans nucl\u00e9aire : illusion ou horizon ?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Dans la situation complexe du Moyen-Orient, de nombreuses questions se posent : pourquoi deux poids deux mesures dans les exigences de contr\u00f4le nucl\u00e9aire entre Isra\u00ebl aucun contr\u00f4le ?! et l’Iran ?\u00a0 Quelques \u00e9l\u00e9ments permettant une r\u00e9flexion \u00e9clair\u00e9e.<\/p>\n

Introduction g\u00e9opolitique<\/h2>\n

Le Moyen-Orient est l\u2019une des r\u00e9gions les plus militaris\u00e9es et strat\u00e9giquement sensibles du monde. Carrefour \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique, th\u00e9\u00e2tre de rivalit\u00e9s id\u00e9ologiques et d\u2019affrontements indirects entre grandes puissances, il concentre des tensions durables. Dans ce contexte, l\u2019id\u00e9e d\u2019une zone exempte d\u2019armes nucl\u00e9aires revient r\u00e9guli\u00e8rement dans les d\u00e9bats internationaux.<\/em><\/p>\n

Pourtant, entre la politique d\u2019ambigu\u00eft\u00e9 d\u2019Isra\u00ebl<\/span><\/span>, les ambitions nucl\u00e9aires controvers\u00e9es de Iran<\/span><\/span> et l\u2019instabilit\u00e9 chronique de plusieurs \u00c9tats, la faisabilit\u00e9 r\u00e9elle d\u2019une telle zone reste incertaine. Est-ce un projet cr\u00e9dible ou un objectif diplomatique symbolique ?<\/em><\/p>\n

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Le cadre juridique international existant<\/h2>\n
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\"https:\/\/images.openai.com\/static-rsc-3\/rrIPxvGnHPNWwN8WX0wnGX8OZ1DTZH2HDpORAp8bYC1qr2xAFHEmdpbnY4go65LZqCyqyUp0zgtYrhhX7jjpY3jC4eh-ywSgDG_e7a2K7Nw?purpose=fullsize&v=1\"<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Le principal instrument mondial est le Trait\u00e9 sur la non-prolif\u00e9ration des armes nucl\u00e9aires<\/span><\/span> (TNP), supervis\u00e9 par l\u2019Agence internationale de l’\u00e9nergie atomique<\/span><\/span> (AIEA).<\/p>\n

D\u2019autres r\u00e9gions ont r\u00e9ussi \u00e0 \u00e9tablir des zones d\u00e9nucl\u00e9aris\u00e9es :<\/p>\n

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    Am\u00e9rique latine,<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

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    Afrique,<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

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    Asie centrale.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    En th\u00e9orie, rien n\u2019emp\u00eache juridiquement le Moyen-Orient d\u2019adopter un dispositif similaire. Des r\u00e9solutions de l\u2019Organisation des Nations unies<\/span><\/span> appellent r\u00e9guli\u00e8rement \u00e0 la cr\u00e9ation d\u2019une telle zone.<\/p>\n

    Mais la difficult\u00e9 n\u2019est pas juridique. Elle est strat\u00e9gique.<\/p>\n

    Le verrou isra\u00e9lien : dissuasion et ambigu\u00eft\u00e9<\/h2>\n
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    \"https:\/\/images.openai.com\/static-rsc-3\/AyKx8mn-kGapAC_XbCu3P-tzLU1O8SDsj0kzL0JvICc1oM1jnbUagtX8z_1m01JqXZ8d9qfFZuUP2QsrDkmDhAV7ywjlTI-5ATwIhKXw00k?purpose=fullsize&v=1\"<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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    <\/div>\n<\/div>\n

    Isra\u00ebl applique une doctrine d\u2019ambigu\u00eft\u00e9 nucl\u00e9aire<\/strong> depuis les ann\u00e9es 1960.<\/p>\n

    N\u2019ayant jamais sign\u00e9 le Trait\u00e9 sur la non-prolif\u00e9ration des armes nucl\u00e9aires<\/span><\/span>, il n\u2019est pas juridiquement contraint par ses m\u00e9canismes d\u2019inspection complets.<\/p>\n

    Pour Isra\u00ebl :<\/p>\n

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      la dissuasion nucl\u00e9aire est per\u00e7ue comme une assurance face \u00e0 des menaces existentielles,<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

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      un d\u00e9sarmement unilat\u00e9ral serait risqu\u00e9 sans reconnaissance diplomatique r\u00e9gionale compl\u00e8te,<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

    • \n

      la priorit\u00e9 reste la sup\u00e9riorit\u00e9 strat\u00e9gique.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      Sans transformation profonde des relations r\u00e9gionales, Isra\u00ebl n\u2019a aucun incitatif s\u00e9curitaire \u00e0 abandonner cette posture.<\/p>\n

      Le cas iranien : d\u00e9fiance et \u00e9quilibre strat\u00e9gique<\/h2>\n

      L\u2019Iran est signataire du TNP et soumis aux inspections de l\u2019Agence internationale de l’\u00e9nergie atomique<\/span><\/span>.<\/p>\n

      Cependant :<\/p>\n

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      • \n

        son programme d\u2019enrichissement avanc\u00e9 suscite la m\u00e9fiance,<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

      • \n

        l\u2019accord de 2015 (JCPOA) a \u00e9t\u00e9 fragilis\u00e9 apr\u00e8s le retrait am\u00e9ricain,<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

      • \n

        le climat r\u00e9gional reste marqu\u00e9 par la confrontation indirecte avec Isra\u00ebl.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

        Pour T\u00e9h\u00e9ran, accepter une zone d\u00e9nucl\u00e9aris\u00e9e supposerait :<\/p>\n

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          une reconnaissance explicite des capacit\u00e9s isra\u00e9liennes,<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

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          des garanties de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 solides,<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

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          une lev\u00e9e durable des sanctions.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

          La m\u00e9fiance mutuelle rend tout compromis difficile.<\/p>\n

          \u00a0Les grandes puissances : arbitres ou parties prenantes ?<\/h2>\n

          Les \u00c9tats-Unis<\/span><\/span>, la Russie et la Chine jouent un r\u00f4le central.<\/p>\n

          Les \u00c9tats-Unis soutiennent strat\u00e9giquement Isra\u00ebl.
          La Russie et la Chine entretiennent des relations \u00e9troites avec l\u2019Iran.<\/p>\n

          Une zone d\u00e9nucl\u00e9aris\u00e9e n\u00e9cessiterait :<\/p>\n

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          • \n

            des garanties de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 internationales,<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

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            des m\u00e9canismes de v\u00e9rification renforc\u00e9s,<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

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            un engagement multilat\u00e9ral cr\u00e9dible.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

            Or, la rivalit\u00e9 croissante entre grandes puissances complique la construction d\u2019un consensus.<\/p>\n

            Conditions r\u00e9elles de faisabilit\u00e9<\/h2>\n

            Pour qu\u2019une zone d\u00e9nucl\u00e9aris\u00e9e devienne r\u00e9aliste, plusieurs conditions devraient \u00eatre r\u00e9unies :<\/p>\n

              \n
            1. \n

              Stabilisation politique durable des conflits r\u00e9gionaux.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

            2. \n

              Reconnaissance diplomatique \u00e9largie entre Isra\u00ebl et ses voisins.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

            3. \n

              Accords de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 collective r\u00e9gionaux.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

            4. \n

              Garanties internationales juridiquement contraignantes.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

            5. \n

              Transparence nucl\u00e9aire compl\u00e8te et inspections renforc\u00e9es.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

              Aujourd\u2019hui, ces conditions ne sont que partiellement r\u00e9unies.<\/p>\n

              La faisabilit\u00e9 n\u2019est donc pas inexistante \u2014 mais elle est conditionnelle \u00e0 une transformation strat\u00e9gique majeure.<\/p>\n

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              Conclusion<\/h2>\n

              L\u2019id\u00e9e d\u2019une zone d\u00e9nucl\u00e9aris\u00e9e au Moyen-Orient repr\u00e9sente un objectif normatif fort et largement soutenu sur le plan diplomatique. Toutefois, sa r\u00e9alisation d\u00e9pend moins d\u2019un cadre juridique que d\u2019un changement profond des perceptions de s\u00e9curit\u00e9.<\/p>\n

              Tant que la dissuasion sera consid\u00e9r\u00e9e comme une assurance de survie par certains acteurs, et comme une menace existentielle par d\u2019autres, la logique nucl\u00e9aire restera un outil strat\u00e9gique.<\/p>\n

              Un Moyen-Orient sans armes nucl\u00e9aires est possible en th\u00e9orie.
              En pratique, il exige une refondation compl\u00e8te des \u00e9quilibres r\u00e9gionaux \u2014 bien au-del\u00e0 de la seule question nucl\u00e9aire.<\/p>\n

              Ressources<\/strong><\/p>\n

              United Nations. (1968). Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT).<\/em> United Nations Treaty Series, 729, 161.<\/p>\n

              Institute for National Security Studies<\/span><\/span> (INSS). (Publications annuelles). Iran\u2019s Nuclear Program: Strategic Assessment.<\/em> Tel Aviv.<\/p>\n

              Carnegie Endowment for International Peace<\/span><\/span>. (Divers auteurs). The Iran Nuclear Deal and Its Aftermath.<\/em> Washington, DC.<\/p>\n

              International Institute for Strategic Studies<\/span><\/span> (IISS). (Annuel). The Military Balance.<\/em> London.<\/p>\n

              International Atomic Energy Agency<\/span><\/span>. (Rapports annuels, 2015-2024). Verification and monitoring in the Islamic Republic of Iran in light of UN Security Council Resolution 2231 (2015).<\/em> Vienna: IAEA.<\/p>\n

              United Nations<\/span><\/span> Security Council. (2015). Resolution 2231 (2015).<\/em> Endorsing the JCPOA.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

              Dans la situation complexe du Moyen-Orient, de nombreuses questions se posent : pourquoi deux poids deux mesures dans les exigences de contr\u00f4le nucl\u00e9aire entre Isra\u00ebl aucun contr\u00f4le ?! et l’Iran ?\u00a0 Quelques \u00e9l\u00e9ments permettant une r\u00e9flexion \u00e9clair\u00e9e. Introduction g\u00e9opolitique Le…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":807,"featured_media":1934741,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11386,40,124282,1250,90,95],"tags":[471,470,22211,3317],"class_list":["post-2680207","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-contenu-original","category-international-fr","category-news-fr","category-paix-desarmement","category-moyen-orient","category-affaires-etrangeres","tag-iran-fr","tag-israel-fr","tag-moyen-orient","tag-nucleaire"],"yoast_head":"\nMoyen-Orient sans nucl\u00e9aire : illusion ou horizon ?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Dans la situation complexe du Moyen-Orient, de nombreuses questions se posent : pourquoi deux poids deux mesures dans les exigences de contr\u00f4le nucl\u00e9aire\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, 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