{"id":1767229,"date":"2023-09-24T16:58:41","date_gmt":"2023-09-24T15:58:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.pressenza.com\/?p=1767229"},"modified":"2023-09-24T16:58:41","modified_gmt":"2023-09-24T15:58:41","slug":"le-traite-de-non-proliferation-tnp-de-faillite-en-faillite","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.pressenza.com\/fr\/2023\/09\/le-traite-de-non-proliferation-tnp-de-faillite-en-faillite\/","title":{"rendered":"Le Trait\u00e9 de Non-Prolif\u00e9ration (TNP) de faillite en faillite"},"content":{"rendered":"

O\u00f9 en est-on dans la prolif\u00e9ration nucl\u00e9aire\u00a0?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

D\u2019abord un rappel\u00a0: d\u00e8s 1946, les \u00c9tats-Unis<\/strong>, alors seuls \u00e0 d\u00e9tenir l\u2019arme nucl\u00e9aire, avaient propos\u00e9 aux Nations Unies le \u00ab\u00a0plan Baruch<\/strong>\u00a0\u00bb, destin\u00e9 \u00e0 placer l\u2019\u00e9nergie nucl\u00e9aire sous contr\u00f4le international pour lutter contre la prolif\u00e9ration nucl\u00e9aire d\u00e9j\u00e0 en cours. L\u2019URSS, qui \u00e9tait en train de d\u00e9velopper sa propre bombe, avait rejet\u00e9 ce projet soup\u00e7onn\u00e9 de consacrer le monopole am\u00e9ricain sur l\u2019armement nucl\u00e9aire.<\/p>\n

En 1949,<\/strong> l\u2019URSS<\/strong> proc\u00e9da \u00e0 son premier essai nucl\u00e9aire, suivi par le Royaume-Uni en 1952, par la France en 1960 et par la Chine en 1964.<\/p>\n

Tout ceci a conduit \u00e0 la mise en place du TNP, le Trait\u00e9 sur la non-prolif\u00e9ration nucl\u00e9aire,\u00a0 entr\u00e9 en vigueur le 5 mars 1970 et prolong\u00e9 \u00e0 dur\u00e9e ind\u00e9termin\u00e9e en 1995.<\/p>\n

Le TNP a-t-il mis fin \u00e0 la prolif\u00e9ration ? <\/strong>C\u2019est ce que nous allons essayer de voir\u2026<\/p>\n

Au fil des ann\u00e9es et des Conf\u00e9rences de r\u00e9vision du TNP il est apparu de plus en plus clairement que les Etats d\u00e9tenteurs des armes nucl\u00e9aires n\u2019entendaient pas respecter leur engagement \u00e0 n\u00e9gocier \u2018de bonne foi\u2019 un r\u00e9el processus de d\u00e9sarmement (Article VI). D\u2019ailleurs, depuis 2015 aucune de ces conf\u00e9rences de r\u00e9vision a abouti \u00e0 un consensus entre les participants et la conf\u00e9rence de cette ann\u00e9e (la premi\u00e8re session du Comit\u00e9 Pr\u00e9paratoire de la Onzi\u00e8me Conf\u00e9rence de r\u00e9vision du TNP), fait in\u00e9dit, n\u2019a m\u00eame pas accept\u00e9 le rapport final de son Pr\u00e9sident \u00e0 titre personnel\u00a0! (il a \u00e9t\u00e9 consid\u00e9r\u00e9 uniquement comme un simple \u2018working-paper\u2019 parmi les autres).<\/p>\n

En fait, le TNP a permis un ralentissement du processus de prolif\u00e9ration, mais ne l\u2019a pas arr\u00eat\u00e9\u00a0: 3 \u00c9tats qui ont alors refus\u00e9 le TNP se sont \u00e9galement dot\u00e9s de l\u2019arme nucl\u00e9aire\u00a0: l\u2019Inde <\/strong>en 1974, le Pakistan<\/strong> en 1998, Isra\u00ebl <\/strong>autour de 1967(*). Ensuite, s\u2019est rajout\u00e9 la Cor\u00e9e du Nord<\/strong> en 2006, apr\u00e8s \u00eatre sortie du TNP en 2003. \u00c0 signaler qu\u2019un \u00c9tat, l\u2019Afrique du Sud, a rejoint le TNP en 1991 apr\u00e8s avoir d\u00e9mantel\u00e9 son arsenal nucl\u00e9aire.<\/p>\n

Au-del\u00e0 de ces 4 \u00c9tats, d\u2019autres \u00c9tats pourraient s\u2019ajouter, notamment l\u2019Iran, l\u2019Arabie Saoudite, le Japon et la Cor\u00e9e du Sud\u00a0: naturellement cela d\u00e9pendra de l\u2019\u00e9volution de la g\u00e9opolitique dans les mois et ann\u00e9es \u00e0 venir.<\/p>\n

D\u2019abord l\u2019Iran<\/strong> qui, suite \u00e0 la rupture en 2018 par Donald Trump de l\u2019accord de Vienne de 2015, a repris l\u2019enrichissement de l\u2019uranium naturel en uranium fissile (U235) au moins jusqu\u2019au niveau de 60\u00a0%, ce qui signifie que le seuil d\u2019environ 90\u00a0% pour la production de bombes nucl\u00e9aires pourrait d\u00e9sormais \u00eatre atteint assez rapidement\u00a0: il s\u2019agit surtout maintenant d\u2019un choix politique.<\/p>\n

Ensuite l\u2019Arabie saoudite<\/strong>, qui avait financ\u00e9 le programme nucl\u00e9aire militaire du Pakistan dans les ann\u00e9es 1990, est tr\u00e8s pr\u00e9occup\u00e9e par la progression du programme nucl\u00e9aire de l\u2019Iran, ce qui pourrait la pousser \u00e0 d\u00e9velopper un programme \u00e9quivalent gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 l\u2019aide du Pakistan (un \u00ab\u00a0retour d\u2019ascenseur\u00a0\u00bb).<\/p>\n

Le Japon<\/strong> dont sa constitution pacifiste, depuis sa d\u00e9faite en 1945, pr\u00e9voit un \u00ab\u00a0renoncement \u00e0 jamais \u00e0 la guerre<\/em>\u00a0\u00bb, face aux nouvelles menaces (r\u00e9elles ou au moins ressenties) de la part de la Cor\u00e9e du Nord et de la Chine, et sous la pression de son alli\u00e9 USA, a d\u00e9cid\u00e9 un programme de r\u00e9armement important, impliquant une augmentation de 60\u00a0% de son budget d\u00e9fense pour les 5\u00a0prochaines ann\u00e9es (2023-2027).<\/p>\n

Quant au nucl\u00e9aire militaire le Japon se \u00ab\u00a0contente\u00a0\u00bb pour le moment de rester sous le \u00ab\u00a0parapluie\u00a0\u00bb des USA et poss\u00e8de une forme de \u00ab\u00a0dissuasion nucl\u00e9aire tacite\u00a0<\/strong>\u00bb gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 ses installations nucl\u00e9aires civiles qui, accessoirement, ont d\u00e9j\u00e0 permis de produire plusieurs centaines de kilogrammes de plutonium de qualit\u00e9 militaire et d\u2019uranium hautement enrichi qu\u2019ils ont ensuite remis aux USA.<\/p>\n

En Cor\u00e9e du Sud<\/strong> le pr\u00e9sident Yoon Seok-yeol a mis r\u00e9cemment sur la table, au sein de son gouvernement, le souhait que les USA installent des armes nucl\u00e9aires tactiques face \u00e0 la menace croissante de la Cor\u00e9e du Nord\u2026 sans exclure l’\u00e9ventualit\u00e9 de les produire par eux-m\u00eames. En outre environ 70\u00a0% de l\u2019opinion publique, de moins en moins confiante dans le \u00ab\u00a0parapluie nucl\u00e9aire\u00a0\u00bb des USA, se dit favorable \u00e0 de tels scenarii.<\/p>\n

En conclusion<\/strong>, les doctrines de dissuasion nucl\u00e9aire sont intrins\u00e8quement prolif\u00e9rantes<\/strong>\u00a0: en effet, l\u2019affirmation que la possession d\u2019armes nucl\u00e9aires est indispensable \u00e0 la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 d\u2019un \u00c9tat implique automatiquement que tous les \u00c9tats du monde doivent \u00e9galement les poss\u00e9der\u00a0! Voil\u00e0 le \u00ab\u00a0moteur\u00a0\u00bb principal de la prolif\u00e9ration nucl\u00e9aire.\u00a0<\/strong>En plus, le fait que les \u00c9tats dot\u00e9s \u2014 dont la France \u2014 modernisent sans cesse leurs arsenaux nucl\u00e9aires, aggrave encore plus ladite prolif\u00e9ration nucl\u00e9aire.<\/p>\n

Or, pour assurer la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 humaine<\/strong> c\u2019est exactement le contraire qu\u2019il s\u2019agit de r\u00e9aliser\u00a0: comme le disait, \u00e0 juste titre, Gorbatchev\u00a0\u00ab\u00a0chaque \u00c9tat doit contribuer \u00e0 la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 de tous les autres<\/strong>\u00a0\u00bb.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

——<\/p>\n

*Cf. Isra\u00ebl et la bombe<\/em> de Avner Cohen (\u00c9ditions Demi-Lune, 2020), dont les services de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 isra\u00e9liens ont tout fait pour emp\u00eacher sa publication.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

O\u00f9 en est-on dans la prolif\u00e9ration nucl\u00e9aire\u00a0? D\u2019abord un rappel\u00a0: d\u00e8s 1946, les \u00c9tats-Unis, alors seuls \u00e0 d\u00e9tenir l\u2019arme nucl\u00e9aire, avaient propos\u00e9 aux Nations Unies le \u00ab\u00a0plan Baruch\u00a0\u00bb, destin\u00e9 \u00e0 placer l\u2019\u00e9nergie nucl\u00e9aire sous contr\u00f4le international pour lutter contre la…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1423,"featured_media":1767236,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11386,40,1250,95],"tags":[3405,3747,6675],"class_list":["post-1767229","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-contenu-original","category-international-fr","category-paix-desarmement","category-affaires-etrangeres","tag-armes-nucleaires","tag-dissuasion-nucleaire","tag-tnp-fr"],"yoast_head":"\nLe Trait\u00e9 de Non-Prolif\u00e9ration (TNP) de faillite en faillite<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"O\u00f9 en est-on dans la prolif\u00e9ration nucl\u00e9aire\u00a0? 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