{"id":2623148,"date":"2025-07-29T21:28:12","date_gmt":"2025-07-29T20:28:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.pressenza.com\/?p=2623148"},"modified":"2025-07-29T21:28:12","modified_gmt":"2025-07-29T20:28:12","slug":"que-venen-els-russos","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.pressenza.com\/ca\/2025\/07\/que-venen-els-russos\/","title":{"rendered":"Que venen els russos"},"content":{"rendered":"

Aquest era el t\u00edtol d\u2019una com\u00e8dia nord-americana de bon record de la meva infantesa. Una\u00a0 pel\u00b7l\u00edcula com altres de la mateixa \u00e8poca com \u00bfQue hiciste en la guerra papi?,<\/em> de Blake Edwards\u00a0 o l’Un dos tres,<\/em> de Billy Wilder que em retornaven a la brillant Ninotcka<\/em> de Lubistch de trenta anys abans. En el fons, la q\u00fcesti\u00f3 \u00e9s que la ind\u00fastria del cinema de\u00a0 Hollywood era capa\u00e7 de fer pel\u00b7l\u00edcules brillants, com\u00e8dies inclassificables i alhora cr\u00edtiques amb el moment. Qualsevol d\u2019aquests t\u00edtols \u00e9s plenament recomanable i molt millor que una pel-li cula d\u2019Antena 3 de la tarda del dissabte, en la que ja saps qui \u00e9s l\u2019assass\u00ed des de la primera escena.<\/p>\n

Que venen els russos<\/em> ve referit al fet actual que\u00a0 sembla que davant de la situaci\u00f3 d\u2019inseguretat generada per un\u00a0 desequilibrat a la Casablanca, com \u00e9s el president Donald Trump, es\u00a0 genera una obligaci\u00f3 d\u2019incrementar els pressupostos de defensa dels pa\u00efsos europeus a qualsevol cost. Per\u00f2, de veritat \u00e9s necessari? De veritat Putin ens amena\u00e7a?<\/p>\n

Anem a pams. El primer punt \u00e9s la q\u00fcesti\u00f3 nuclear. Per molt que increment\u00e9ssim la despesa militar, la dissuasi\u00f3 nuclear \u00e9s lluny, a gal\u00e0xies d\u2019un equilibri per parts dels europeus amb els Estats Units i R\u00fassia. Volem nuclearitzar Europa? No. Fran\u00e7a disposa d’una pistola enfront de R\u00fassia i Estats Units. No \u00e9s, per tant, la nostra lliga i no hem de competir. Hem d\u2019anar cap a una major desnuclearitzaci\u00f3 global.<\/p>\n

Deixem de banda l\u2019armament nuclear i anem als ex\u00e8rcits convencionals. Fem-nos una pregunta: la R\u00fassia de Putin, que no est\u00e0 podent acabar amb Ucra\u00efna, que necessita soldats nord-coreans i presos comuns per mantenir la guerra iniciada,\u00a0 \u00e9s una amena\u00e7a directa al conjunt de pa\u00efsos de l’Otan? Francament, si no pot acabar amb Zelenski, menys podr\u00e0 amb la major part dels pa\u00efsos de la Uni\u00f3 Europea. Els tancs russos no es passejaran pas pels Camps Elisis de Par\u00eds.<\/p>\n

Ens traeix el passat. Pensem que Putin\u00a0 \u00e9s la reencarnaci\u00f3 de la Uni\u00f3 Sovi\u00e8tica amb el Pacte de Vars\u00f2via. Durant la Guerra Freda\u00a0 els tancs russos eren aquarterats a l\u2019antiga RDA. En tres dies, a trav\u00e9s de la bretxa de Fulda, podien travessar el Rin,\u00a0 arribar sense grans obstacles a la\u00a0 costa atl\u00e0ntica francesa i baixar per la vall del Roine. Estar\u00edem parlant d\u2019una ofensiva blindada amb\u00a0 milers de carros de combat. Aquests milers de carros ja no hi s\u00f3n i Putin est\u00e0\u00a0 centenars de quil\u00f2metres enrere, a les fronteres de Bielor\u00fassia, l’\u00f3blast de Kaliningrad… no seria doncs la mateixa posici\u00f3 de sortida ni tampoc la mateixa possibilitat d\u2019acumular\u00a0 prou forces militars per a la ruptura. Avui en dia R\u00fassia no disposa de milions de soldats.<\/p>\n

Quin son els riscos de Putin a les fronteres d\u2019Europa? \u00c9s Berl\u00edn? No. Ni Copenhaguen, ni Viena, ni Budapest. La capacitat militar de R\u00fassia, ara com ara, nom\u00e9s dona per envair els pa\u00efsos immediatament fronterers amb R\u00fassia i els seus aliats: Finl\u00e0ndia, les rep\u00fabliques b\u00e0ltiques i Pol\u00f2nia i, alhora, mantenir\u00a0 els seus posicionaments a Transn\u00edstria, Crimea i el Donb\u00e0s, a m\u00e9s del Caucas.<\/p>\n

No ens hem d’estranyar que finlandesos i suecs abandonin la seva posici\u00f3 de neutralitat per entrar a l’Otan. No siguem hip\u00f2crites. Des de la pen\u00ednsula Ib\u00e8rica, on nom\u00e9s estem envoltats de les tres Pes, Peixos, Portugal i Pirineus, gosem donar lli\u00e7ons de seguretat a pa\u00efsos com Pol\u00f2nia, que en tota la seva hist\u00f2ria ha estat envoltada de tres grans pot\u00e8ncies com s\u00f3n Alemanya, l\u2019Imperi Habsburg i R\u00fassia. Quantes particions ha tingut Pol\u00f2nia en la seva hist\u00f2ria: tres particions al segle XVIII i una al XX, sense comptar el despla\u00e7ament de fronteres despr\u00e9s de la Segona Guerra Mundial cap a l\u2019Oest. Que els polonesos no se sentin segurs el dia d\u2019avui \u00e9s normal, d\u2019acord amb els precedents hist\u00f2rics. A m\u00e9s, malgrat el te\u00f2ric suport franc-brit\u00e0nic, aquests no van fer res per impedir la invasi\u00f3 de 1939.\u00a0 Per altra banda, Finl\u00e0ndia ha entrat en conflicte amb R\u00fassia, b\u00e9, llavors era la Uni\u00f3 Sovi\u00e8tica, dues vegades en el segle XX.<\/p>\n

Vol R\u00fassia ocupar Finl\u00e0ndia o Pol\u00f2nia? No. \u00c9s per una voluntat de pau del Kremlin? No. \u00c9s m\u00e9s aviat per un fet important: no hi ha russos en aquests territoris. Des de la caiguda de la Uni\u00f3 Sovi\u00e8tica la protecci\u00f3 de les comunitats russ\u00f2fones ha estat un element important\u00edssim pel Kremlin. I aquest \u00e9s el punt feble de les rep\u00fabliques b\u00e0ltiques. A Estoni\u00e0, la comunitat russ\u00f2fona \u00e9s el 24,7% de la poblaci\u00f3. A Let\u00f2nia hi ha discriminaci\u00f3. Aquests s\u00f3n els arguments possibles per un desembarcament de Putin al mar b\u00e0ltic.<\/p>\n

Pot R\u00fassia envair les rep\u00fabliques b\u00e0ltiques, Pol\u00f2nia o\u00a0 Finl\u00e0ndia. S\u00ed. Per\u00f2 Putin no t\u00e9 capacitat per anar m\u00e9s enll\u00e0 de les fronteres de Pol\u00f2nia. El comprom\u00eds dels altres pa\u00efsos pot ser b\u00e0sic i fonamental per repel\u00b7lir una agressi\u00f3 russa, o almenys dissuadir-la.<\/p>\n

Per\u00f2 per aix\u00f2 no cal destruir l\u2019estat del benestar\u00a0 i incrementar de forma boja els pressupostos de defensa. Alguns governants ho acceptaran per convicci\u00f3, per\u00f2 altres ho fan des de la perspectiva d\u2019un autoritarisme populista que desvirtu\u00ef\u00a0 tant els drets socials reconeguts com la mateixa democr\u00e0cia. De qu\u00e8 serviria incrementar despesa en defensa si no suposa m\u00e9s seguretat efectiva? Per a garantir l\u2019immediat desplegament, en cas de crisis, de prou forces militars\u00a0 en 48 hores a la zona de conflicte no cal un increment del 5%. I molt menys\u00a0 comprar a tort i a dret material militar a Trump.<\/p>\n

La manera m\u00e9s efectiva de garantir la seguretat col\u00b7lectiva\u00a0 costa menys. Cal donar seguretat a R\u00fassia, per\u00f2 tamb\u00e9 a les rep\u00fabliques b\u00e0ltiques, Pol\u00f2nia, Finl\u00e0ndia, Ucra\u00efna, Bielor\u00fassia, garantir els drets\u00a0 de les persones\u00a0 que viuen en aquests espais i el respecte a la seva identitat i cultura, abandonant pol\u00edtiques discriminat\u00f2ries que poguessin justificar\u00a0 una nova crisi del Sud-est. M\u00e9s democr\u00e0cia, m\u00e9s drets humans i socials, m\u00e9s just\u00edcia social, aix\u00ed es construeix la pau.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Aquest era el t\u00edtol d\u2019una com\u00e8dia nord-americana de bon record de la meva infantesa. Una\u00a0 pel\u00b7l\u00edcula com altres de la mateixa \u00e8poca com \u00bfQue hiciste en la guerra papi?, de Blake Edwards\u00a0 o l’Un dos tres, de Billy Wilder que…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1122,"featured_media":2623154,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[35503,35514,35506,35528,35524],"tags":[140570,140569,99579,140568,66672,128868,99503],"class_list":["post-2623148","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-asia-ca","category-assumptes-internacionals-ca","category-europa-ca","category-opinions-ca","category-politica-ca","tag-bielorussia-ca","tag-finlandia-ca","tag-otan-ca","tag-polonia-ca","tag-russia-ca","tag-trump-ca","tag-ucraina-ca"],"yoast_head":"\nQue venen els russos<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Aquest era el t\u00edtol d\u2019una com\u00e8dia nord-americana de bon record de la meva infantesa. 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