On August 19, two weeks after Michigan’s Democratic primary, we wrote that Abdul El-Sayed’s victory did not yet show that “the progressives have won,” but rather that “a political experiment has begun in one of America’s pivotal states.” The picture remained open: El-Sayed had won narrowly, the race against Republican Mike Rogers was still rated a “Toss Up,” and Gaza had entered domestic politics directly. Yet his electoral appeal is not limited to Gaza: the campaign has also won support on everyday issues such as healthcare, the cost of living, and the influence of big money in politics. Just a few days later, two new developments make that experiment even more interesting.¹

AIPAC: From Financial Power to a Potential Electoral Liability

The first concerns AIPAC. According to Axios, allies of Mike Rogers — despite the Republican candidate’s well-known pro-Israel positions — asked AIPAC not to run advertisements supporting him in the November campaign. Rogers spoke with AIPAC president Michael Tuchin; the following day, the organization shelved a video ad it had already prepared against El-Sayed. It is a notable shift: during the primary, AIPAC and affiliated groups had spent more than $30 million against El-Sayed. Now Rogers’s allies fear that highly visible support from the organization could prove electorally counterproductive. This does not mean that AIPAC has lost its influence, but it suggests that its name, at least in Michigan, may now also carry a political cost.²

From Gaza to the Return of Some Voters

The second development comes from a Guardian report from Dearborn and other Michigan communities. The newspaper met voters who had abandoned the Democrats in 2024 over Gaza — voting “uncommitted,” for Jill Stein, or even for Donald Trump — and who are now returning, at least in part, to the Democratic orbit to support El-Sayed. One voter who cast an “uncommitted” ballot in 2024 and later voted for Stein is now volunteering for him; another, who voted for Trump, says she will return to the Democrats in November for El-Sayed.³

These are still individual testimonies, not evidence of a broad realignment. But together with the Rogers-AIPAC rupture, they point to something new: Gaza and political money are no longer merely issues in El-Sayed’s campaign. They are beginning to concretely alter the behavior of his opponents and of part of the electorate. Three weeks after the primary, that is the most important change to watch.

Updated August 26, 2026

Notes and sources

  1. Kazuhiro Imamura, “Michigan, Two Weeks Later: What Abdul El-Sayed’s Victory Really Tells Us,” Pressenza, August 21, 2026 (situation updated through August 19).
  2. Alex Isenstadt, “Scoop: Mike Rogers-AIPAC rupture roils Michigan Senate race,” Axios, August 22, 2026.
  3. Minnah Arshad, “‘I hate Democrats, but I love Abdul’: voters who left over Gaza return for progressive push,” The Guardian, August 23, 2026.