More of the Same, Despite All the Bluster
Before Donald Trump was elected he gave indications that he had some understanding of the war in Ukraine and how it has exponentially accelerated the transformation of the global economic world order over the course of the last 2 and ½ years. (1) He also spoke of his “very good relations” with the leaders of China and Russia and how he, unlike the neocon led Biden administration, would be able to put a stop to the war between Russia and Ukraine “within 24 hours” of being elected.(2)
Judging by his actions during his first month in office however, all indications are now that Trump does not (really) understand the undeniable fact that it is no longer 1995 or 2005 or 2015 or even 2021, for that matter. So far Trump and Co. seem to believe, just as their neocon predecessors Biden and Co. believed, that brash ultimatums and threats of economic sanctions and tariffs are still operationally valid despite a towering stack of evidence to the contrary.(3)
Trump Apparently Didn’t Read the Memo Very Closely
Trump seems to think that the US can still push the world around any time and in any way it wishes, as it has done since the 1990s. Unfortunately, Trump, like his Biden administration predecessors, apparently didn’t read a key memo very closely. The one certifying the fact that a massive global economic and military alliance made up of nearly 60% (and counting) of the world’s population with a larger GDP than the G7 (and counting) has been growing at a near exponential rate since the end of 2022.(4)
This global alliance, that goes by the name of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) has added 14 new members to its charter over the course of the last few years and there are at least 20 other countries that are in line to be approved as future members.(5) Most of the new member countries were added as a result of the failed US proxy war in Ukraine, which became a beacon, a signal to countries all over the globe that the US is no longer omnipotent and that it is now possible to be free of its enforced debt, its military invasions and its violence. This and China’s continuing rise to the top of the global superpower heap, has generated the current “Bolt to BRICS” (2022 – 2025).
Over the course of the past few years, while European countries and the US have been suffering stagnation, inflation and a mounting pile of other problems, BRICS nations like China, India and Russia, have been experiencing steady and in some cases phenomenal growth rates.(6) Add to this the fact that as a combined military force, the BRICS alliance is more than capable of defending itself against US/NATO threats of devastation and destruction. This has been made very clear over the course of the last 36 months.
By May 9th, Or Else!
Despite all of this, Donald Trump, aside from his proposal to take over Gaza and turn it into some kind’ve Beach Vacation Resort, has threatened Russia, saying they must “stop the war by May 9th, 2025 or else!”(7) May 9th is Russia’s annual “Victory Day” when they honor the loss of the 30 million Russians who died to stop Germany’s takeover of the world in WW2. Trump, not one to take second place in any contest, seems to be attempting to outneocon the neocons by poking the Russian bear right in its chest with this anti-historical gesture of ignorance and disrespect.
What Mr. Trump doesn’t realize yet is that the US has no economic or military leverage over Russia anymore.(8) Russia’s response so far has been, paraphrasing, “Go ahead, have at it. See what happens. See if we care.” Add to this the fact that just the other day China, Russia’s key partner in BRICS, announced a 75% tariff on American goods in response to Trump’s threats to every nation in BRICS.(9)
The Art of the 21st Century Deal
As I said in my article from three months ago: “American hegemony is waning (for good) and a serious adaptation needs to be made here in the US, existentially and ideologically. The US is going to have to learn to work together with its global neighbors and perceived “enemies”, as opposed to bullying them and bossing them around. That approach simply isn’t going to work anymore.”(10)
The other option, which is the one the previous administration seemed to be attempting, is to war our way back to Unipolarity by eventually taking on Russia and China in a massive, most likely nuclear confrontation. That would be, to put it mildly, absurd. Straightforwardly, the US is finished as a world power unless we adjust to the global transformation that is already underway. The transformation from Unipolarity to Multipolarity.(11)
Many of Us Were Quietly Hoping
When Trump got elected many of us were quietly hoping that, somehow, his ability to make deals combined with his wish to go against the last 25 years of violent neocon globalism, which is essentially neo-imperialism, would enable him to help segway the US into Multipolarity without the daily threat of violent escalation and nuclear annihilation that we’ve been experiencing over the course of the last three years.
Hopefully, that hope was not an entirely false one. Hopefully Trump will find a way to pivot, to change course, when he realizes that he’s essentially making very similar foreign policy mistakes to the ones the Biden administration made.
Addendum
The morning after I finished writing the part of the article you’ve just read, a news bulletin appeared that I would be remiss not to mention. It seems that Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin have “already spoken” about the need to end the war in Ukraine. During their meeting Putin reportedly remarked, “Only Trump can end the war in Ukraine. No one else.” Trump also mentioned that Putin “just wants to stop the killing”. I’ll let you, the reader, and time determine how effective their interchange actually was. Let’s hope it’s not just more bluster.(12)
CITATIONS:
1- https://pism.pl/publications/the-relevance-of-brics-after-the-russian-invasion-of-ukraine
2- https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-trump-war-2018906
3- https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/16/briefing/russian-sanctions.html
7-https://meduza.io/en/feature/2025/01/27/over-by-may-9
8-https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E6jyGH6RvXA&t=469s
9-https://www.logicallyfacts.com/en/fact-check/no-china-has-not-imposed-75-tariffs-on-american-goods
11- https://www.ft.com/content/5a1a5d17-d37b-4242-8241-d81daa7467fc
